Keynesianisme er stadig ikke ’stueren’

tpcSeks år efter at verdensøkonomien kollapsede for anden gang i hundrede år, flirtes der stadig med depressionssymptomer i Europa. To-cifret arbejdsløshed, faldende priser og nul-renter er velkendt fra 1930'erne.

Modoffensiven var dengang massiv offentlig ekspansion, inspireret af økonomen Keynes. Men Keynes er i dag død, og i mere end én forstand.

Keynes og den aktive finanspolitik blev nemlig store tabere i den økonomisk-politiske kulturkamp, op gennem 1990'erne og '00'erne.

Trods flirten med langvarig lavvækst ligevægt i Europa, samler Keynes’s, ”The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936), derfor stadig støv på boghylden.

Denne kendsgerning vanskeliggør rettidig annullering af de obstruktive finanspolitiske spilleregler i EU, som er en nødvendig forudsætning for at trække den europæiske økonomi ud af dødvandet.

Et frisk keynesiansk pust fra Århus

Èn person der har kæmpet og forsvaret det keynesianske arvesølv, er tidligere overvismand, Christen Sørensen (CS). Han har netop meddelt, at han lader sig opstille til folketingsvalget næste år.

CS er en, efter danske forhold, særdeles kontroversiel økonom, der har lagt sig ud med både det akademiske og politiske etablissement.

Han kritiserede i foråret Produktivitetskommissionens arbejde, og kom i den offentlige gabestok af den ellers besindige kommissionens formand, Peter Birch Sørensen. Han har kaldt Bjarne Corydon for inkompent, og beskyldt, både den nuværende og tidligere regering for at have ført en forkert økonomisk politik.

Selvom CS i den brede offentlighed er ukendt, er han i mere elitære kredse kendt, som èn af Danmarks meget få keynesianske stemmer.

Det er dog som kritiker af de anvendte nationaløkonomiske modellers forudsætninger, at CS har tiltrukket sig mest opmærksomhed på det seneste.

Hvad vil CS udrette og hvad KAN han forventes at udrette med et MP mandat?

Udover at der skal foretages flere offentlige investeringer er det gætværk, hvad der ellers er på tapetet. Måske det er for at komme tættere på Finansministeriets ADAM model, som han mener er politisk manipuleret.

Altså, forestil dig en ung fuldmægtig, der sidder med EXCEL’S SOLVER funktion og laver ”trial-an-error” med Corydon stående bagved, uagtet i øvrigt, armslængdeprincip og plausibilitet af forudsætningen.

Er det pga. ADAM modellen, er det måske nok alligevel bedre at søge en stilling i Finansministeriet, med god mulighed for at snuse til både modelkode og ministerinvolvering. Finansministeriet har nemlig allerede i et omfangsrigt notat,  imødekommet kravet om mere modelgennemsigtighed.

Et notat der blev delvis omfavnet af Professor Jesper Jespersen (RUC), men slagtet af CS.

Ministeriet var dog ærlige nok til at sige, at ADAM er et redskab og ikke en facitliste. I min optik betyder det 100% ”modelbruger” diskretion over de centrale forudsætninger i modelleringen.

Sådan fungerer økonomiske modeller som oftest. En kæmpe matematisk maskine, med måske hundredvis af ligninger og identiteter, men hvor det endelige resultat alligevel kan styres af ganske få antagelser, omkring forskellige adfærdsmønstre i økonomien. Det kunne være husholdningernes opsparingstilbøjelighed.

Med hensyn til yderligere offentlige investeringer, som CS vil øge. Det ER den nødvendige medicin, men ifølge de samme modeller, vil yderligere ufinansierede offentlige investeringer, bryde med EU trakternes nationale budgetrestriktioner. Derfor vil dette venligt, men bestemt blive skudt ned af Finansministeriets regnedrenge, under sandsynligvis en borgerlig minister, der følger det samme kompas som forgængeren.

En folketingsstol til CS er alligevel vigtig.

I Europa såvel som Danmark er det vigtigt at få udfordret en ellers dybfrossen neo-liberal debat, funderet i ”nødvendighedslov” og budgetlov.

Det er vanskeligt, jovist, for som sikkert CS også har oplevet det, er det keynesianske tankegods ikke ”stuerent”. Heller ikke i dag, trods en vedvarende europæisk og dansk vækst- og beskæftigelseskrise, der som det også fremgår nedenfor, har mange ligheder med 1930'ernes depression.

Pengepolitikken, som konjunkturpåvirkende instrument, har været anvendt med stor succes i Europa i hele perioden, hvor EU landene har været underlagt budgetrestriktionerne.

Pengepolitikken virkede, efter de flestes mening, både som fine-tuning instrument af konjunkturcyklen, samt som redningskrans da IT-boblen punkterede. Derfor blev Keynes og den aktive finanspolitik da også tabere (knockoutet) i den økonomisk-politiske kulturkamp omkring aktiv økonomisk politik.

Finanskrisen og Keynes

Da krisen ramte hele verden i 2007-2008, reagerede Europa også med finanspolitiske lempelser. Men disse blev hurtigt i 2010 trukket tilbage igen, da ”Austerity” politikken blev officielt vedtaget.

Med den senere vedtagne finanspagt, der påbyder de enkelte EU lande at indføre budgetrestriktionerne i national lovgivning, er den keynesianske stopklods nu mejslet i granit.

Keynes er i dag stadig usexet, trods;

  • den rekordhøje (ufrivillige) arbejdsløshed
  • de meget lave og tenderende til negative vækstrater
  • den næsten deflationære prisudvikling (ja, deflation er værre end inflation!)

Men måske allermest centralt, trods;

Netop disse forhold, var også forudsætningerne i Keynes’s depressionsunivers, i hvilken  han vurderede, at kun finanspolitikken kunne få økonomien på ret køl igen.

Derfor er det også uretfærdigt og i virkeligheden misforstået, at de keynesianske tanker stadig undertrykkes af en mainstream neo-liberal økonomisk skole.

Uretfærdig og misforstået, fordi den filosofiske og praktiske afvisning af det keynesianske tankegods, som nævnt har rod i de sidste par årtier, hvor keynesianismen er blevet slagtet, som konjunkturstabiliserende redskab.

I de 20 år forud for finanskrisen, var der nemlig kun småudsving i konjunkturcyklen, samtidig med at den finansielle sektor var sund.

MEN, keynesianisme, som udløber af Keynes’s, ”The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936), handler først og fremmest om statens muligheder i en ligevægtstilstand, som nu, med depression eller langvarig lavvækst, og hvor de førnævnte betingelser er opfyldt.    

Danmark er ”Accident-Prone” og har brug for massiv fleksibilitet

Danmark er ikke det værst ramte land i EU, hverken målt på arbejdsløshed eller vækst. Til gengæld er Danmark det land, ikke bare i EU, men i hele OECD, der har den højeste husholdningsgæld i forhold til BNP (ca. 300%).

Denne potentielt voldsomme ”Balance-Sheet Recession”, repræsenterer samtidig en potentiel atombombe for dansk økonomi nu, og i fremtiden. IMF og delvist Nationalbanken, har da også udpeget denne særdeles selvforstærkede mekanisme, som en trussel mod den danske økonomi.

Danmark har lige nu og her brug for en finanspolitisk ekspansion. Ikke bare for at stimulere den hårdt trængte vækst, men også for at reducere sandsynligheden for denne mulige korrektion af gearingen i husholdningerne.

En stimulans, der må være større end den stimulans, som de projekterede 3% budgetunderskud giver i 2015. Med "opbrugt" stimulans indenfor budgetrammen næste år, ja, så kan impulserne fra finanspolitikken kun blive negativ fremadrettet.

Den private opsparing (indkomst i husholdninger og virksomheder fratrukket investeringer og forbrug) i Nationalregnskabet, er steget til massive 10% af BNP og stigningen afspejler sig i et større betalingsbalanceoverskud på nu 7%.

Sidstnævnte er dog i en global kontekst ikke positivt, da det også afspejler lavere relativ dansk import. Med andre ord den private sektors opsparingsfest koster efterspørgsel og indkomst i udlandet.

Det private opsparingsoverskud bør derfor anvendes til at finansiere offentlig efterspørgsel. Et gældsfinansieret investeringsboom vil slå massivt igennem, da ligevægtsrenten i likviditetsfælden er negativ, hvorved det i virkeligheden er en gratis omfang at dykke ned i den private opsparing. Ingen "crowding out" effekter fra rentestigninger ved yderligere obligationsudstedelse.

Budgetrestriktionerne gør dog, at staten ikke kan udnytte 0%-statsrenterne yderligere.

Fremadrettet kan Europa og særligt Danmark komme i en situation, hvor massiv fleksibilitet er nødvendig. Både i finanspolitik og for Danmarks vedkommende, også valutakurspolitik. Ellers risikerer Europa og Danmark at blive fanget i en Japansk fælde i årtier.

Anderledes budgetregler kommer, men måske for sent!

Nå, men tilbage til CS.

Den kontra-keynesianke ånd, som er dybt forankret i det politisk-økonomiske etablissement i Europa og Danmark, gør hans finanspolitiske mission vanskelig.

EscapeCrisis.dk velkommer, som sagt enhver stemme i den økonomiske debat, der udfordrer de gængse modeller og tanker. Europa og Danmark er fastfrosset i en lavvækstfælde, der pga. hysteresis, risikerer at reducere kraftigt, den fremtidige potentielle vækst og dermed velfærd.

Vi er bange for, at europæiske politikere og økonomer, ikke er klar til at fælde dødsdom over det nuværende økonomisk-politiske setup, før det er for sent.

I takt med, at ECB, som forventet, fortsætter opkøbet af værdipapirer vil balancerne blive pustet op. Renten på alle slags værdipapirer vil falde yderligere mod nul, som det jo allerede er sket for AAA statsobligationer.

Det skaber bare ikke jobs!

Og så er vi tilbage ved den keynesianske filosofi om, at man ”kan slæbe hesten til truget, men ikke tvinge den til at drikke”.

PS. Christen Sørensen, hvis du læser dette:

Finansministeriets regnemodel ADAM, er, forstås det, en traditionel Keynesiansk inspireret model, som modsat de gængse ny-keynesianske modeller, ikke indeholder fremadskuende agenter. Ergo, multiplikatorerne må alt andet lige være højere i ADAM.

Skulle du mod forventning komme i nærheden af ADAM modellens kalibrering, kunne du så ikke prøve at finde ud af størrelsen af disse multiplikatorer. Jeg har en ide om, at de er ”modelbruger” underestimeret for at sikre at ”opsparingsparadokset” ikke finder sted.

Det virker kontraintuitivt (derfor ikke accepteret) og for godt til at være sandt. Men hvis ellers modelbrugeren, den fuldmægtige, eller Corydon, ville indtaste i ADAM modellen, de nyest beregnede multiplikatorer (eg. fra IMF), så ville statsbudgettet blive positivt, i takt med yderligere finanspolitisk ekspansion (prøv at lægge ind i ADAM modellen udgiftsmultiplikatorer på 3!)

Multiplikatorerne er i nulrente-miljøet meget højere end nogen tør sige endsige implementere, pga. den kontraintuitive effekt det så har. Bare spørg IMF, som i 2012 måtte indrømme, at deres "Austerity" forslag til bla. Grækenland, byggede på massivt underestimerede multiplikatorer, hvorved eg. Grækenland fik højere og ikke, som forventet, lavere underskud på budgettet.

Så selv om det lyder som politisk guf, at kunne fylde borgernes lommer op, uden at spille hazard med budgettet, ja så er det en sammenhæng, der nødvendigvis må korrigeres politisk af ”modelbrugeren”.

Men især disse tanker omkring opsparingsparadokset er fy fy.

Keynesianisme er jo hokus pokus!

Thomas Peter Clausen, Okt 2014

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3.045 tanker om “Keynesianisme er stadig ikke ’stueren’

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    Topic sentence which states the 1st subtopic and opens accompanied by a transition
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    Although it may appear to be a waste of time - notably during exams where time is tight - it is almost always much better to brainstorm a bit before beginning your essay. This should permit you to definitely get the top rated supporting ideas - rather than simply the very first ones that come to mind - and position them into your essay accordingly.
    Your most helpful supporting idea - the just one that most strongly makes your case and, simultaneously, about which you have probably the most knowledge - should go initial. Even the best-written essays can fail for the reason that of ineffectively placed arguments.
    Aim for Selection
    Sentences and vocabulary of varying complexity are 1 belonging to the hallmarks of effective composing. When you find yourself creating, try to avoid utilizing the same words and phrases over and over again. You really do not must be a walking thesaurus but a minor variance can make the same idea sparkle.
    In the event you are asked about "money," you could try "wealth" or "riches." Within the same time, avoid beginning sentences the dull pattern of "subject + verb + direct object." Although examples of this are harder to give, consider our producing throughout this article as a single big example of sentence structure assortment.
    Practice! Practice! Practice!
    Within the finish, though, remember that sound composing does not happen by accident. Although we have endeavored to explain everything that goes into effective essay creating in as clear and concise a way as potential, it is substantially easier in theory than it is in practice.
    As a result, we recommend that you choose to practice crafting sample essays on quite a few topics. Even if they are not masterpieces at primary, a bit of regular practice will soon change that - and make you significantly better prepared when it comes to the real thing.
    Now that you’ve learned how to jot down an effective essay, check out our Sample Essays so it is possible to see how they are done in practice.
    Essay Creating Center
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