Olieprisens styrtdyk - "Armageddon". Så køb da noget Olie ECB!!

MoneyfornothinhMed det nuværende niveau på USD 38 pr. tønde Brent råolie, er vi jævnfør, de fleste eksperters opfattelse, tæt på de marginale produktionsomkostninger ved udvindelse af een ekstra tønde råolie.

Men spørger man de store økonomiske "tænketanke", herunder IMF, OECD, og de kloge afdelinger i centralbankerne, om de er bekymrede over de fortsatte fald i olieprisen, er svaret entydigt. JA!

For de fleste, herunder også, højt estimerede økonomer, virker dette dog særdeles kontraintuitivt.

Fortæller basal Neoklassisk Mikroøkonomi trods alt ikke, at en outputpris tættere på de marginale omkostninger er bedre for samfundet (verden) end en monopol/oligopol outpris langt over de marginale omkostninger? Var der ikke noget med et "dødvægtstab" - trekanten, det mistede producent- og forbrugeroverskud ved for høj pris? Og hvad med købekraften? Den stiger som bekendt direkte ved olieprisfald, og indirekte via lavere priser på olieafhængige produkter, eg. flybilletter.

Fortæller basal Keynesiansk Makroøkonomi ikke samtidig også, at 1 dollar fra een rig lomme ("Sheiken" som sælger) til en anden og mere "fattig" lomme ("Hr. Hansen" som køber), øger realt BNP for samfundet under eet?

Svaret er ja og ja.

Men hvorfor så bekymringen?

Lad os lige dvæle kort ved mikro-makro gymnastikken, inden vi besvarer spørgsmålet ud fra den intellektuelt udfordrende makrologik.

Hvad der præcist er omkostningen ved at udvinde en ekstra tønde råolie, er særdeles usikkert og muligvis også sløret. Karteller, som OPEC har kun et formål, og det er at sikre prisen er over de marginale omkosninger, så de kan sikre sig "overnormal" profit.

Hvorfor lukker Sauderne så ikke bare produktionen midlertidig, som de i øvrigt altid har gjort, for at holde prisen i "overnormalt" niveau? Det kan de ikke, da konkurrencen er for stor fra non-OPEC. Istedet har OPEC, med Sauderne for bordenden, nu taget skeen i den enden hånd, og fjernet produktionskvoter for at få priserne ned.

Hvorfor? Håbet er at de i et spil "Game of Chicken" (den der blinker først!) kan udholde smerten ved lav oliepris længere end konkurrenterne. Saudi Arabien producerer idag 10,4 mill. tønder om dagen, hvilket er rekord.

Da der foregår en kamp, muligvis over, muligvis under de marginale omkostninger, er det svært at vide hvor langt olieprisen kan komme ned. Men der gættes i nogle kredse på, at Sauderne kan producere med profit, helt ned til USD 3 pr. tønde, mens nivauet ligger på USD 30-100 afhængig af om det er i Qatar, Rusland, USA, Norge eller Danmark. On-shore eller off-shore.

Sheikerne i Saudi-Arabien har dog tudet siden prisen krydsede gennem USD 90 for et par år siden. Slut med Guldvandhaner, slut med Bentley'er til hele familien, og slut med A380 indfløjet daglig Sushi fra Tokyo. Ved det nuværede niveau på USD 40 påstås det ovenikøbet i andre kredse, at landet, ex-USD reserverne, vil gå fallit inden 2 år! WOW.

Kamelerne bliver nu trukket væk fra middagsbordet og ud på landevejen.

Men hyleriet er mikro.

I makro er een persons cashflow tab en andens cashflow gevinst (dollar-for-dollar). Det kaldes også et nulsumspil, og er i dette tilfælde mellem eksportører og importører af olien, mellem Vesten og OPEC/Rusland. Det er aaltså umiddelbart godt for Hr. Hansen og skidt for Sheiken, men under eet, stiger BNP alligevel realt, pga. forskellighed i marginal forbrugstilbøjelighed/opsparingstilbøjelighed.

Fraset denne umiddelbare fordelingsmæssige effekt (geopolitik!), er der derfor tale om en aggregreret positiv effekt på vækst og beskæftigelse. Heri ligger den positive fortolkning af olieprisens fald.

Her kommer så kerneproblemet.

Monotont faldende oliepriser skaber deflationære tendenser i særligt vare- og servicepriser. Det vi forbinder med inflation/deflation i daglig tale. Altså nøjagtig det vi har været vidne til de sidste 3 år, med negativ og svag positiv inflation i især Europa, Danmark og Japan, men også i Kina (relativt til deres mål).

Jamen, hvad med den hæderkronede "Aggregate Demand Curve", AD kurven, som siger at realt BNP stiger ved faldende varepriser? Det er da POSITIVT med faldende aggregerede priser? Det hænger ikke sammen, eller gør det?

Er det så fordi, som vi ofte hører at forbrugere udsætter deres forbrug når de "kan se", at priserne falder? NEJ, det er en særdeles udbredt misforståelse (ville man argumentere omvendt ved stigende priser?). Problemet ligger i, at vi er i et 0%-rente miljø. Det som Keynes kaldte en "Likviditetsfælde".

Lavere inflation/deflation kan således ikke realt kompenseres for ved at nedsætte de nominelle renter pga. de-facto stopklodsen ved 0%, eller lige under. Dette er forudsætningen under "AD kurvens" sammenhæng mellem pris og BNP.

Realrenterne stiger således for forbrugere og virksomheder i takt med olieprisfaldet, hvis vi antager, at olieprisfaldet kommer ud til "tanken". Herved kan økonomien blive fastlåst i en langvarig lavvækstfælde, da en genopretningsligevægt vil tilsige 0%-renter eller negative realrenter. En fastfrossen lavvækstfælde, som bliver forstærket, fordi cyklisk langtidsledighed og lave bruttoinvesteringer, reducerer den fremtidige potentielle vækst i økonomien.

For høje realrenter er således en bekymring, men spørger man de store institutioner, som IMF og OECD, er hovedbekymringen et andet, men velkendt fænomen.

Fænomenet kaldes "debt-deflation" og blev første gang beskrevet i 1933 af Irving Fisher.

En spiral som vi så i 1930'erne og i en anden form også i 2008. I sin substans, betyder den, at stærkt "bruttogældsatte" lande med svært oppustede balancer pga. af eksempelvis boliglån, oplever negative reale formueeffekter, når varepriserne falder.

Nominelle boliglån stiger således i real værdi ved faldende og overraskende inflation, eller direkte deflation. Men er det ikke blot et nulsumspil, hvor obligationsejeren eller banken (udlåner) får den modsat positive reale effekt, 1:1, "Krone-for-Krone" ? Jo, målt som netto formueeffekt.

Men for samfundsøkonomien er det negativt, fordi låntager typisk har højere marginal forbrugs/investeringstilbøjelighed end udlåner. Der er altså på BNP, en samlet marginal negativ og asymmetrisk multiplikatorisk effekt fra låner/udlåner mellemværendet. Dette BNP chock kan give yderligere fald i priserne, hvorved spiralen er i gang. Jo højere balancer, des større er denne potentielle bombe!!

Da Europa stadig i mange lande kæmper med for store balancer, er ECB naturligvis bekymret for denne mekanisme, udover deres 2% - inflationsmål per se. For lige at afslutte AD kurvens paradox, så ligger der i den oprindelige sammenhæng også denne asymmetriske effekt, blot med staten som låntager og den private sektor som långiver, hvorved BNP effekten bliver positiv ved faldende inflation.

Langt ind I ECB er frygten derfor, at de faldende oliepriser, vil være dråben, der fastfryser kontinentet i en langvarig (permanent) langtidsledighed, hvor en ond spiral mellem højere cyklisk ledighed og lavere strukturel ledighed, reducerer fremtidig vækst, beskæftigelse og velstand.

Derfor er det også fristende og lidt kontroversielt at spørge om ikke ECB burde kigge på opkøb af oliekontrakter. En ny QE. Lyder himmelråbende naivt og usandsynligt, men det var det nuværende QE program også for 2 år siden. ECB forsøger pt. at skabe vareinflation ved lave renter og QE. Foreløbig har en mulig effekt heraf, dog ikke kunnet opveje det nedadgående pres fra bla. lavere oliepris. Faktum er også, at det er en særdeles kompliceret og usikker "transmissionsproces" fra de nuværende instrumenter til inflation.

Ved at købe olie, påvirkes inflationen mere eller mindre direkte. Tillige er det heller ikke monetær finansiering af Euro landendes statsgæld, som det nuværende program. Det er muligvis ikke lovligt under det nuværende ECB mandat at købe olie, men så gør som EU, og tidligere EF altid har gjort det med korn. Køb og smid på lager gennem EU for at holde prisen oppe!

Bottom line: de faldende oliepriser er en potentiel bombe der på lang sigt kan besegle Europas økonomiske lavvækstskæbne, hvorved de nuværende velfærdsmodeller ikke kan opretholdes, som vi kender dem. På kort sigt kan, og vil, forsat faldende oliepriser, udløse en ny finanskrise, med kraftigt faldende aktier og kreditobligationer.

Danmark?

Danmark har OECD rekord i privat husholdningsgæld med 300% af disponibel indkomst. Nationalbanken har i mange år haft en arrogant og naiv holdning til denne særlige rekord, hvor problemet nedtones med henvisning til husholdningernes nettoformue (aktiver minus gæld), som ganske vidst er positiv.

Men i forhold til "debt deflation" spiralen er det ikke nettoformuen, men den realt-nominelt korrrigerede nettoformue, der er afgørende for "bombepotentialet". Aktiverne er oftest "reale" aktiver, som boliger og aktier, mens kun gælden er nominel. Det er altså den nominelle nettoformue der er kritisk, og den er svært negativ i de danske husholdninger.

Presses Nationalbanken på denne mekanismes betydning, vil den absolut ikke overbevisende nye direktør, nok forsvare sig med, at danskerne er dumme, altså de lider af "pengeillusion". De forstår ikke betydningen af lav(ere) inflation og gæld. Enig, få vil løbende opgøre deres formue realt, men der altså en mer-regning at betale når terminsdatoen oprinder! Spiralen er muligvis igang allerede, men skjules af de lave renter.

Derfor er olieprisens kollaps også særdeles kritisk for et land som Danmark, som i øvrigt også pga. fastkurspolitikken ikke har centralbank redskaber til stoppe en "debt-deflation" spiral. De offentlige finansers tab i forbindelse med lavere oliepris er håndøre i denne sammenhæng.

Få så den oliepris op!

"Game of Chicken" eller ej!

Thomas Peter Clausen

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